Who will win the 2020 US election? Joe Biden has won Michigan, bringing a possible victory in the 2020 US presidential election tantalisingly close. The two candidates are locked in a neck and neck race for the White House that might not have a clear winner for days, but the announcement of the Michigan and Wisconsin results put Biden within touching distance of the 270 electoral college votes needed to win. The so-called ‘Rust Belt’ states have proved pivotal in the final stretch of a tighter-than-expected election, after an early Trump win in Florida hit Biden’s chances of a landslide and limited his potential path to victory. A further win in any of the states that are still to declare (except Alaska) will push Biden over the top. Of those, Nevada and Pennsylvania are seen as possibilities, although counting in both states is not expected to be finished for some time, maybe even days.
He might also make it to 270 by winning in the previously Republican state of Georgia, which would echo his flipping this time round of Arizona from red to blue. However Trump cannot be counted out — he may yet get his second term if he takes Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. The vast majority of races in the 2020 US election have called, going as predicted, but the final result may not become clear for some days. Counts in states including Georgia and Nevada were eventually paused in the early hours of the morning, while the unprecedented number of mail-in ballots has presented a challenge across the nation. During the delay, both sides signalled their belief that they would ultimately emerge victorious. Speaking from the White House’s East Wing after results started coming in, President Trump claimed “we were getting ready to win this election. As election night unfolded, betting markets had moved in favour of a Trump victory, with improved odds for the sitting President standing in stark contrast to his predicted prospects from the day prior.
Yet closer than expected races in the key swings states mean negative polling and dire predictions for Trump may have vastly underestimated his chances of a shock victory. With the benefit of hindsight pundits may point to the President’s approval ratings barely shifting despite a tumultuous year and core support for his economic and migration policies as signs Trump would again prove the victorious underdog. Results in key states are still expected — check this page regularly to see the latest results as and when they come in. All 50 states and the District of Columbia voted in Tuesday’s election. To win a candidate needs at least 270 of the 538 votes on offer in the US’s indirect voting system — the electoral college — where candidates pick up votes by coming first in a state and getting its proportional share of the total. Victory in California, population of 39.5m, earns you 55 electoral college votes, while winning Wyoming, home to 580,000, gets you three.
Pennsylvania is one of key states to watch, but results did not come through on election night. It is part of America’s ‘Rust Belt’ — a region hit hard by industrial decline — and was key to Trump’s victory in 2016. If Biden wins her, having claimed Wisconsin and Michigan, he’s likely on course for the presidency. Georgia and North Carolina are a further two swing states yet to be declared. A striking feature of pre-election polling is it had suggested Biden could claim victory in states which have historically been Republican strongholds. Initial results however suggested Biden had underperformed compared to polling, but nonetheless still had a shot at victory. When will we get the final result? Unlike most presidential races, we did not receive a decisive result on the night of the election, as officials in the remaining battlegrounds grappled with a large number of early votes. We are not expected to get a result until at least the early hours of Thursday morning in the UK.