Who will win the 2020 US election? The outcome of the 2020 US presidential election is on a knife edge as the final state battlegrounds prepare to declare following a tense vote counting process. All eyes are on Georgia and Pennsylvania; a win for Democrat Joe Biden in Pennsylvania would take him over the 270 electoral college votes needed to set him on course for the White House. In Georgia, new count totals on Friday morning put Joe Biden narrowly ahead in the state. Mr Biden, recently boosted by victories in the Rust Belt states of Michigan and Wisconsin — both won by Mr Trump in 2016 — has the momentum. Latest tallies show the former Vice President closing on victory, amid the Trump campaign pursuing legal action to contest vote counts. Both candidates have so far failed to deliver a knock-out blow in the 50 state races, with Mr Trump outperforming pre-election predictions with wins in Florida and Ohio and a strong defence in Republican strongholds like Texas.
The so-called ‘Rust Belt’ states have proved pivotal in the final stretch of a tighter-than-expected election, after the early Mr Trump win in Florida hit Mr Biden’s chances of a landslide and limited his potential path to victory. A further win in any of the states that are still to declare (except Alaska) will help push Mr Biden over the top. Of those, Nevada and Pennsylvania are seen as possibilities, and he may also make it to 270 by winning in the previously Republican state of Georgia. This would be a flip from red to blue, like Arizona, which has already been called for Mr Biden by Fox News and Associated Press but still has 300,000 ballots to count. However Mr Trump cannot be counted out — he may yet get his second term if he takes Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. Arizona too may yet be called for Mr Trump. The vast majority of races in the 2020 US election have called, going as predicted, but the final result may not become clear for some days.
Counts in states including Georgia and Nevada were eventually paused in the early hours of the morning, while the unprecedented number of mail-in ballots has presented a challenge across the nation. During the delay, both sides signalled their belief that they would ultimately emerge victorious. Speaking from the White House’s East Wing after results started coming in, Mr Trump claimed “we were getting ready to win this election. As election night unfolded, betting markets had moved in favour of a Mr Trump victory, with improved odds for the sitting President standing in stark contrast to his predicted prospects from the day prior. Yet closer than expected races in the key swings states mean negative polling and dire predictions for Mr Trump may have vastly underestimated his chances of a shock victory. With the benefit of hindsight pundits may point to the President’s approval ratings barely shifting despite a tumultuous year and core support for his economic and migration policies as signs Mr Trump would again prove the victorious underdog.
Results in key states are still expected — check this page regularly to see the latest results as and when they come in. All 50 states and the District of Columbia voted in Tuesday’s election. To win a candidate needs at least 270 of the 538 votes on offer in the US’s indirect voting system — the electoral college — where candidates pick up votes by coming first in a state and getting its proportional share of the total. Victory in California, population of 39.5m, earns you 55 electoral college votes, while winning Wyoming, home to 580,000, gets you three. Pennsylvania is one of key states to watch, but results did not come through on election night. It is part of America’s ‘Rust Belt’ — a region hit hard by industrial decline — and was key to Mr Trump’s victory in 2016. If Mr Biden wins here, having claimed Wisconsin and Michigan, he’s likely on course for the presidency.
Georgia and North Carolina are a further two swing states yet to be declared. A striking feature of pre-election polling is it had suggested Mr Biden could claim victory in states which have historically been Republican strongholds. Initial results however suggested Mr Biden had underperformed compared to polling, but nonetheless still had a shot at victory. When will we get the final result? Unlike most presidential races, we did not receive a decisive result on the night of the election, as officials in the remaining battlegrounds grappled with a large number of early votes. We are not expected to get a result until at least early Friday in the UK. Most states began counting mail-in ballots and those turning out to stations early before election day, but in several others — including key swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — laws prevented ballots from being checked until election day itself. Combine these barriers with a tight race and then the Mr Biden or Mr Trump campaigns considering forcing recounts, and it’s possible to see how it might be some time before we know for sure who’s won.